The floodplain development downstream of the dam and the subsequent loss of floodwater conveyance increase the length of time water is held behind the dam because of reduced outflows. These reduced outflows increase the length of time that water is impounded in the floodway and consequently raises ground water levels in the North Pole area. To address this dilemma, the Corps has made surface water flood reduction a priority over ground water flood reduction. The reason for this is that surface water flooding can occur more rapidly and offers a greater potential for the loss of life. Flooding from ground water infiltration involves a lag time where preventative measures can be taken to remove valuables from crawl spaces and basements. The Moose Creek Dam was not designed to prevent ground water flooding, as it is situated on top of permeable soils that in some places are over 600 feet deep. This means that when the flows on the Little Chena River necessitate reductions in outflows to a minimum to keep downtown Fairbanks flows from exceeding 12,000 cfs there will be substantially more ground water problems downstream of the dam than we have seen to date.
In response to anticipated ground water flooding potential in the North Pole area, the Fairbanks North Star Borough prohibits construction of finished living space below grade in new homes within one mile below the Moose Creek Dam. This ground water zone was derived as a result of a ground water flow modeling effort performed by the Corps Hydrologic Engineering Center in 1995. Reference can be made to U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, The Development and Application of Initial Hydrogeologic Flow Model for the Chena River Lakes Flood Control Project, July 1995, for more details.
The project was designed to limit stream flows on the Chena River to no more than 12,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) at the gauging station in downtown Fairbanks. Reaching this level depends on many hydrologic factors and is not a required level to reach every time there is a gate closure at the dam. The primary concern to the Corps during a flood event is what the unregulated Little Chena River and other drainages located between downtown Fairbanks and Moose Creek Dam are contributing to the total discharge. The Little Chena River alone has an expected 100-year flood potential in excess of 11,000 cfs which means to keep flows under 12,000 cfs in downtown Fairbanks, the Corps must regulate flows at the dam at the minimum flow of 1,000 cfs. Under the same scenario, it is very likely that a large event will also occur on the Chena River requiring substantially more water to be diverted into the floodway than occurred during June of 1992 flood of record. This translates to a longer duration of flow over the sill, and hence more severe impacts to the ground water table below the dam than anyone has seen to date.
Past operations of the dam have allowed flows in downtown Fairbanks to exceed 11,000 cfs but only because of the contribution from the Little Chena River and other drainages below the dam. In June 1992, flows at Fairbanks reached 10,500 cfs. The dam was designed to release a total of 10,000 cfs from the control works (including the seepage collector channels) but since coming on line in 1979, the Corps has never released more than 8,700 cfs. This is due to the residential development and road improvements (including increasing heights) that have occurred in the Steamboat Landing/Dehmer area since the project was originally authorized. In June of 1992, releases from the dam were held to 8,000 cfs because of complaints of flooded riveways and water in various residences in the Steamboat Landing/Dehmer area. In July of 2003 Freeman Road was resurfaced thereby adding additional height to which waters must reach before overtopping and thereby increasing flood potential on its upstream side.